Italian seismologists face trial for manslaughter for not predicting earthquake

A huge earthquake hit the town of L’Aquila in Italy on 6^th April 2009, killing 309 people. Seismic activity had been noticed in the area in the preceding months but scientists failed to predict the enormous and deadly quake. Because of this, 6 seismologists and one government official now face trial for manslaughter and up to 12 years in prison if convicted.

The accusation is that scientists falsely reassured the public and therefore people who may have left town stayed with fatal consequences.

The details of who said what, when and to whom are hotly contested. Read more details here and here, but the main issue seems to be this:

At a press conference following a scientific meeting of experts on March 31^st, Bernardo De Bernardinis, then deputy technical head of Italy’s Civil Protection Agency, made the following statement:

”The scientific community tells me there is no danger,” he said, ”because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favourable”.

 Enzo Boschi, president of the National Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology and one of the accused criticized this statement as unfounded, saying scientists would never say there is no danger.

Boschi has also noted there are hundreds of seismic shocks every year in Italy: ”If we were to alert the population every time we would probably be indicted for unjustified alarm,” he said. Boschi and many others have also said that the blame for the deaths rested with poor construction standards in a known earthquake area.

Thousands of scientists have already signed a letter of support for the accused. Boshi also expects that the case will be dismissed in September. If not could we really see a seismologist jailed for not predicting an earthquake?