Hurricane Sandy, sweeping the East Coast of the USA, has been predicted with great accuracy. The people in New York and surrounding areas were evacuated where necessary; the authorities gave a clear and unambiguous message and the loss of life has been minimal. Buildings have on the whole survived intact, a testament to building standards in New York State.
The people of l’Aquila were not so lucky in 2009, when an enormous earthquake struck the town, tragically killing 309 residents. People blamed God, poor building quality, and also the scientists on the disaster committee. Last week, six Italian seismologists and one official were sentenced to six years in prison for multiple manslaughter for failing to adequately communicate the risk of such an earthquake happening.
There was an outcry around the world to these sentences, which potentially have far-reaching consequences not only for the individuals involved but for scientists everywhere involved in scientific risk assessments.
Several commentators have likened this trial to the trial of Galileo in 1666, which put Italians off astronomy for centuries. Nature magazine (which has an in depth report on the case) describes the verdict as “perverse” and the sentence “ludicrous”. The Times of India calls the verdict “a blow to scientific freedom”.
But perhaps the most worrying and immediate concerns are for the volcanologists observing Mount Vesuvius, also in Italy (see, for example this article from The Guardian (UK). It is only a matter of time before there is an eruption. The scientists who work there now face losing their liberty if they fail to get it right. And as volcanoes are notoriously hard to predict, I imagine many of them may be reconsidering their career options…..
Image courtesy of Victor Habbick at FreeDigitalPhotos.net
